Mitigation-sensitive components
CO₂ post-2024 trajectory (instance #23)
β ranges from -1.53 (SSP1-1.9) to +0.62 (SSP5-8.5). All SSPs sub-rate, but degree of sub-rate-ness scales with mitigation. SSP1-2.6 produces the deepest sub-rate post-2024 β = -24.319.
SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 cross β = 1 forward in 2038–2039 — supercritical thereafter.
Climate Mitigation Atlas — \(\beta\) by observable × emissions pathway
Each cell's colour is one number — the rate exponent \(\beta\). Green = stoppable (returns to rest). Orange = super-rate. Red = locked-in.
Click any cell for the full reading: \(\beta\), cross-model dispersion, theorem anchor, and the source code on GitHub.
How to read this chart · what the SSPs mean
The axes
- Rows: 8 climate observables — what is changing.
- Columns: 5 emissions pathways from "very aggressive mitigation" (left) to "no mitigation" (right).
- Cell colour: the rate exponent \(\beta\). Below 1 is stoppable; above 1 is locked-in.
- Cell label: the actual \(\beta\) value cross-model median.
The five emissions pathways (SSPs)
- SSP1-1.9 — ~1.5°C. Aggressive net-zero by mid-century. Paris lower bound.
- SSP1-2.6 — ~2°C. Moderate mitigation. Net-zero by ~2070.
- SSP2-4.5 — ~2.7°C. Current policies, middle-of-the-road.
- SSP3-7.0 — ~3.6°C. Regional rivalry, fragmented action.
- SSP5-8.5 — ~5°C. Continued fossil-fuel growth, no mitigation.
SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are the IPCC's standard set of emissions futures. The number after the dash is the radiative forcing in 2100 (W/m²).
GMSL aggregate β (instance #24)
β ranges from -1.119 (SSP1-1.9) to +0.521 (SSP5-8.5). Sub-rate under aggressive mitigation; super-rate under high emissions. Aggregate carries the "mitigation works" headline at the cost of hiding the AIS component lock-in.
Steric expansion β (also instance #24)
β = +1.12 (SSP1-1.9) to +1.31 (SSP5-8.5). Super-rate even under aggressive mitigation but with mitigation-scaled magnitude. Mitigation does not move steric expansion below β = 1, but it reduces the rate by ~15%.
Permafrost first-PELT-CP year
SSP1-2.6 delays to 2033.5; SSP5-8.5 at 2027.5. ~5 yr gain from aggressive mitigation. The β estimate itself binds against Theorem 3 (narrow log-range) — the operative metric is the change-point year, not β.
Glaciers β (also instance #24)
β = +0.21 (SSP1-1.9) to +0.90 (SSP5-8.5). Sub-rate everywhere, but acceleration scales with forcing. Glaciers are not locked-in; their decline rate scales with mitigation.
Reading
The mitigation-sensitive cascades respond to forcing in framework-native units. The framework's contribution is quantifying the response in a single dimensionless number per (cascade, SSP) cell — and revealing that the response curve is monotone in mitigation for these cascades, unlike the σ_cross paradox observables where it is non-monotone.