RAPID forward-extrapolation block
Source: RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS, 2004–2024 monthly (n = 240). Φ range [6.64, 24.99] Sv (mean 16.97, std 3.20). log²(\(\Phi_{\max}/\Phi_{\min}\)) = 1.755 — Theorem 3 floor binds.
5 rate-perturbation scenarios over 50-yr forward extrapolation:
| scenario | κ_perturbed (Sv/yr) | Φ@50yr median (Sv) | β GLS | 68% CI | PELT cps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −50% rate | −0.046 | 16.66 | −2.138 | [−3.29, −0.98] | 13 |
| −25% rate | −0.069 | 15.49 | +0.158 | [−0.98, +1.29] | 16 |
| 0 (RAPID drift) | −0.092 | 13.72 | +1.177 | [+0.22, +2.13] | 17 |
| +25% rate | −0.115 | 13.18 | +2.468 | [+1.62, +3.31] | 23 |
| +50% rate | −0.139 | 12.04 | +2.349 | [+1.64, +3.06] | 24 |
CMIP6 SSP fan (msftmz; Pangeo catalogue)
| SSP | n_models | β GLS median | σ_cross | weakening rate (Sv/decade median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSP1-1.9 | 0 | — | — | — (no models in cache) |
| SSP1-2.6 | 13 | +1.257 | 2.526 | −0.519 |
| SSP2-4.5 | 14 | +0.553 | 1.730 | — |
| SSP3-7.0 | 0 | — | — | — (no models in cache) |
| SSP5-8.5 | 19 | +0.309 | 1.545 | — |
Climate Mitigation Atlas — \(\beta\) by observable × emissions pathway
Each cell's colour is one number — the rate exponent \(\beta\). Green = stoppable (returns to rest). Orange = super-rate. Red = locked-in.
Click any cell for the full reading: \(\beta\), cross-model dispersion, theorem anchor, and the source code on GitHub.
How to read this chart · what the SSPs mean
The axes
- Rows: 8 climate observables — what is changing.
- Columns: 5 emissions pathways from "very aggressive mitigation" (left) to "no mitigation" (right).
- Cell colour: the rate exponent \(\beta\). Below 1 is stoppable; above 1 is locked-in.
- Cell label: the actual \(\beta\) value cross-model median.
The five emissions pathways (SSPs)
- SSP1-1.9 — ~1.5°C. Aggressive net-zero by mid-century. Paris lower bound.
- SSP1-2.6 — ~2°C. Moderate mitigation. Net-zero by ~2070.
- SSP2-4.5 — ~2.7°C. Current policies, middle-of-the-road.
- SSP3-7.0 — ~3.6°C. Regional rivalry, fragmented action.
- SSP5-8.5 — ~5°C. Continued fossil-fuel growth, no mitigation.
SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are the IPCC's standard set of emissions futures. The number after the dash is the radiative forcing in 2100 (W/m²).
Same σ_cross paradox as sea-ice
σ_cross is widest under SSP1-2.6 (2.526) and tightest under SSP5-8.5 (1.545). σ_cross-best is SSP5-8.5 but is meaningless physically — it is the σ_cross paradox repeated. Read the paradox treatment.
Source: scenario_fan_amoc_v2.py + amoc_observational_rapid.py